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- The 10-year old seller’s market continues, evidenced by:
- Modest purchase volume declines, in spite of a cumulative 39% increase in constant quality HPA since January 2020,
- Historically tight supply,
- The work from home revolution, and
- Arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences.
- Purchase volume for week 35 is down 31% & 15% from 2021 & 2019, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 12.4%, 11.2%, & 10% in August, September, & October 2022, respectively.
- If the current mortgage rate of around 6% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 6-8% (y-o-y) as demand will further moderate and supply will increase.
- HPA declines seem most likely at the high end of expensive markets, at the low end of some FHA markets, and in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.