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- The 10-year old seller’s market is showing its age, with moderate purchase volume declines due to sharply higher rates & a cumulative 37% increase in constant quality HPA since Jan. 2020.
- Tight supply, the work from home revolution, & arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences are helping to extend the seller’s market, but this is likely to change with HPA peaking in July.
- Purchase volume for weeks 42 is down 40%, 28% & 15% from 2021, 2019 & 2018, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 9.2%, 7.3%, & 5.3% in Oct., Nov., & first week of Dec. 2022, respectively.
- If the current mortgage rate of near 7% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 4-6% (y-o-y) as demand will further moderate and supply will increase.
- Y-o-y HPA declines will be developing soon at the high end of expensive markets, spreading to the low end of some FHA markets, & in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.
- We expect the national seller’s market to end in 2023.