Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

​​​​​​​John Reilly
September 24, 2022
5 min

Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 37, 2022)

By Edward J. Pinto | Tobias Peter

 

September 20, 2022

PDF to full report

Key takeaways:

Key takeaways:

  • The 10-year old seller’s market is showing its age, with moderate purchase volume declines due to sharply higher rates & a cumulative 37% increase in constant quality HPA since Jan. 2020.
  • A historically tight supply, the work from home revolution, and arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences are helping to extend the seller’s market.
  • Purchase volume for week 37 is down 32%, 3% & 11% from 2021, 2019 & 2018, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 10.5% and 9.1% in September and October 2022, respectively.
  • If the current mortgage rate of around 6% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 6-8% (y-o-y) as demand will further moderate and supply will increase.
  • HPA declines seem most likely at the high end of expensive markets, at the low end of some FHA markets, and in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.  We expect the national seller’s market to end in 2023.
  • While in the midst of the most rapid slowdown in Home Price Appreciation (HPA) since the bust of 2007-2011, demand pull inflation continues to exert a strong influence on general inflation.
  • While HPA is rapidly slowing, loan originations (other than FHA) continue to exhibit stressed mortgage default rates that will contain default levels.

John Reilly

John, a real estate educator and attorney, is one of the foremost writers of real estate materials, which include 10 books, and numerous articles. His national best seller, “The Language of Real Estate” is in its eighth edition, selling over 150,000 copies and published by Dearborn Publishing.

Contact: John@RealTown.com
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